Should We Pay Attention to Polls and Other Indicators?

Based on this theory, probably not.

The Spiral of Silence is a theory that predicts the likely outcome of situations when an individual's opinion are a minority viewpoint. Most chose to conceal their opinions, so as to reduce friction and fit in. That tendency varies according to ethnic or national background - not surprisingly, those from conformist societies, such as Taiwan, are more likely to hide their contrary opinion.

I didn't see this in that study, but I'd be surprised if women were not more likely to censor themselves, as most women are anxious to conform to a group. Likewise, Black and other minorities might be more likely to echo the majority viewpoints.

Polls conducted by phone (the most common scenario) magnify this tendency. Both in-person polling (one of the most expensive forms) and online polling reduce it. Knowing this allows us to place more credence on the online polls - while still having some reality issues, in this aspect, silencing minority viewpoints, they may be more accurate.

Absent another catastrophic incident, such as 9/11, I doubt we will see another political re-alignment in the near future. There will be some movement of the less-committed, but no major flood to the Trump side. So, every vote counts - particularly in the larger cities, where alien voting and voter fraud are issues.

In other news, apparently Trump acted in his role as President, which outraged the Leftists/Progressives (I will be SO relieved when the Leftists drop that Progressive label in favor of the unvarnished truth - it will save so much time).

Bookwormroom has some insight into the history of the Middle East that shows the power of the unelected bureaucrat.

Did you know that it was British bureaucrats, determined to keep their jobs at all costs, who sparked Arab nationalism in Palestine, creating the dangerous Middle East that consumes the world today?

 If you're not reading Watcher of Weasels, a collective blog that includes Bookworm Room, you're missing a treat.

I'll be on the road for the next few days, so my blogging will be sporadic.