It will be a long time for most to be profitable, IF they survive. The trouble is, the businesses that were hardest hit are just those ones those small businesses that are said to be the backbone of our economy. They are the ones that are most likely to produce American-made products and provide services using American workers.
Instead, the Chinese-sourced and connected businesses - Amazon, Apple, Walmart, virtually all cell phone and technology manufacturers, and the big pharmaceuticals, to name just a few - are the ones that have been "permitted" to remain in business.
About the only thing that is going to work is hefty financial pressures on companies to avoid Chinese productions. And, for a long time, until we get control of our own manufacturing pipeline, that may mean depending on India, South Korea, and other Asian countries. Those countries, particularly India, are capable of ramping up production of essential goods, particularly medications and medical equipment.
I don't like it. I don't trust Indian companies to act other than in their own country's interests. I dislike Indians gaming the immigration system, then also benefiting after having forced Americans out of high-tech occupations through blatant discrimination.
But, short-term, it may be the best way we have to undercut China's increasingly aggressive and underhanded actions, politically, economically, and militarily.
Cold Fury has a short post that summarizes how this "existential crisis" is being used to gain/solidify power in the hands of the Left. Good graphic list - you might want to copy and paste it to all your social media sites. The Left usually manages to ignore writing about the topics, however good. But, they do pay attention to the memes.
Another argument for halting the shutdown is Farr's Law. I never heard of it before, either. It's explained here, along with a lot of other things, as well.
Here are some more links:
- to using Farr's Law and comparing WuFlu outcomes in different countries.
- An abstract that looks at AIDS infections using Farr's Law.
- This article makes a case for dumping ALL of the models, and just preparing for occasional sweeps of disease through populations. Treat, but don't shut down the economy.
That last is very difficult, in the face of hysterical media/activists, who want Big Daddy Government to solve ALL their problems. For those individuals, failure to take any and all actions necessary to spare them worry that "OMZ, I might DIE!!!!!" is tantamount to genocide.
I've become increasingly skeptical of the "Scientific Models" approach to making decisions about disease. It turns out that it is NOT Rocket Science (that's a shorthand way of referring to those models that are based on well-understood physical science principles, and that work, because the variables involved are relatively few. Physics doesn't change because people act differently; that's in contrast to almost everything with a human variable).
If human actions are involved, then toss out most of the models - which, are based on flawed stats. A canny guy who has a good understanding of how people act - that is, People Sense - is a better choice to consult his gut, and make a fair decision.
Like Trump.
So, let me ask a question, Linda, which I'll get to shortly.
ReplyDeleteI'm assuming that you'd intend to clear ALL of the current barriers to entry for health care, so society resembles Michael Z Williamson's Freehold or L. Neil Smith's universe. No COPN laws, medical licensing, prescriptions, manufacture, etc. Under those circumstances, I'd agree that a Laissez nous faire response to an epidemic would be justifiable.
But that is not the society we have. I'll point out that substituting the judgement of one individual for the judgement of a bureaucracy is another slippery slope. We need neither a nomenklatura nor a Caesar. Under the system that we presently have, with the poorer 2/3rd's healthcare being subsidized by the richer 1/3, and rationing of care by our various governments the reality, how do you respond to a novel epidemic virus when you do not know the infectiousness or lethality of the germ involved? Models are not a prediction of reality, they are a prediction of what the reasonable worst case COULD BE. We are fortunate that the reality rarely matches these predictions. One day, however, it will.
The first law of modelling is that the model is NOT REALITY. The problem with the CCP viral epidemic is not the models. Anyone familiar with exponential growth knows that there is a 'knee' in the growth curve that is dependent on a wide variety of variables, as discussed somewhat on this site. The problem is much worse, and much bigger, than inaccurate models. The problem is not just with the US health care system. It is much worse and much bigger than that.
The problem is that individual self reliance has been bred out of our culture for decades, and that the civilized ethos and values that underpin that self-reliance are not the American norm, as they were a hundred years ago, but the vanishingly rare exception.
My question is this- How do you cure that, and what happens when the corrupt culture we live in becomes terminal?
Oh, there are enough of us that have been made tough by life experience - civilian or military - and who are planning to use the interim to prep. That prep might also include taking vulnerable elderly into their own homes (leaving them in residential care could be a death sentence), learning the needed skills - fast, and getting in better physical shape. Get teeth attended to, have that needed non-emergency surgery, get Lasix or a couple pairs of glasses.
ReplyDeleteMake alliances with trusted friends, neighbors, and family. Talk over how you might defend your territory, should the ill-prepared decide to 'liberate' your stuff. Plan, coordinate, practice.
I'm not planning on going down easy.
@Linda Fox-
ReplyDeleteDear Lady, I was not suggesting that *you* or those near and dear to you are likely to flinch at whatever vicissitudes life might throw at you. My question lies more along the lines of- Who will come next? James Webb's examination of the Scots-Irish and their effect upon America notwithstanding, I doubt that the vast majority of present day 'Americans' have the backbone of their ancestors. How do we help modern day folks find that again?
Perhaps I do the next generations ill in doubting them. But when the father of two college age boys tells me that I "shouldn't send [his son] email links about coronavirus outbreaks because he gets really upset," I have to wonder.
We shall see, sooner rather than later. And when the outbreak of some novel pathogen turns out to be worse than the model, how will our jello-spined invertebrate descendants fare then?
With regard to all who seek the light,
Historian