The Unwelcome Cup

     Once in a great while, a politician tells us something significant by doing nothing: more specifically, by not reaching for a seeming prize that would be his merely for the reaching. I have before me a historical reminder.

     In August of the Year of Our Lord 1914, when the great powers of Europe had decided to settle some minor issues by killing millions of their best and brightest, France was in a bit of turmoil. Several shattering defeats of France’s armies by German forces had greatly undermined the existing administration. Premier Rene Viviani decided to look for a few popular figures to buttress the government. His eye lit at once upon the man known as “the Tiger of France:” former prime minister Georges Benjamin Clemenceau.

     Clemenceau politely declined the honor:

     Viviani found [Clemenceau] in a “violent temper” and without desire to join a government he expected to be out of office in two weeks.
     “No, no, don’t count on me,” he said. “In a fortnight you will be torn to ribbons, I am not going to have anything to do with it.” After this “paroxysm of passion” he burst into tears, embraced Viviani, but continued to decline to join him in office.

     [Barbara Tuchman, The Guns of August]

     Politicians, however greedy for power, are nevertheless wary of traps that are baited with it. No one wants to be holding the baton when the Jacquerie kicks off, and at that moment in August 1914, popular sentiment was clearly inclined toward torches and pitchforks. Clemenceau, one of the ablest statesmen in Europe, could see that it was thus.

     Something similar is in progress in the United Kingdom. The current Labour government, headed by Sir Keir Starmer, has performed atrociously and seems likely to fall. However, a great deal of the odium for Labourite policies has fallen on Starmer personally. Labour’s “back room” has persuaded Starmer to resign his premiership: something of a “sop to Cerberus” so the rest of the administration might not fall as well.

     And so, there is a vacancy at Number 10 Downing Street. Who will be next to occupy that high post? Surely some grandee of the administration will put himself forward for the job. Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy? Defence Minister Dan Jarvis? Perhaps even Foreign Minister Yvette Cooper?

     Nope. None of them want it. Among the seated ministers, the lack of interest in accepting the mantle of leadership is total. In consequence, a brand new Member of the House of Commons from Manchester, Andy Burnham, is expected to take the post unopposed.

     That isn’t because Burnham has the glow of the heaven-sent upon him. He just hasn’t had any previous association with the sitting government. No one who has that taint wants the crosshairs upon him with the government in such dire straits. Burnham, whose highest previous office was as the mayor of Manchester, will be no better than Starmer – indeed, with no experience in Britain’s national administration he’s likely to be well out of his depth – but the strategists and kingmakers of the Labour Party are happy to let him be the focus of popular attention for a while.

     I don’t expect much. I didn’t expect much when Boris Johnson rose to the premiership. The national government of the United Kingdom is even more dominated by unelected civil servants than is the federal government of these United States. “Permanent secretaries” and their staffers get their way in the same fashion as do American bureaucrats: by simply ignoring the elected and appointed officials nominally over them. Radical changes are highly unlikely.

     It’s those bureaucrats who constitute the true and enduring government of Britain. Their primary interests are in continuity, both in policy and in personnel. They know full well that for practical purposes, their positions are guaranteed. They will move, or refuse to move, in whatever fashion preserves those interests.

     Politicians come and go; bureaucrats are forever.

     The Sceptered Isle has been in difficulties for some time. Those difficulties are destined to deepen further. It’s a pity, for America has – or had – much in common with Britain. But with every figure of note unwilling to challenge the untried Burnham for the helm, inertia will be the only victor… and inertia always points downhill.