Good morning, Gentle Reader. Happy Guy Fawkes’ Day. Do you feel like burning someone in effigy? I do.
Needless to say, the results of the midterms have been on everyone’s mind. How did it happen? What should we expect? How do we cope with it? And of course, the gurus of opinion-mongering all have their analyses and prescriptions.
It seems to me that the old investors’ maxim – “Past performance is no guarantee of future returns” – has some relevance here. Past performance doesn’t guarantee anything, but it’s all the information we have. Besides, the technical analysts have their maxim too: “The trend is your friend.” So we tend to steer by the winds we know.
While no one in the Right wanted to see the Democrats take control on Capitol Hill, midterm elections tend to disfavor the party whose man is in the White House. So there were reasons to believe that the Left would make some gains. Given the thinness of the majorities the GOP enjoyed in both Houses, the loss of those majorities was, if not guaranteed, possible at least and probable if we go by the polls.
But matters were graver than we thought. The fecklessness of the Republican caucuses disgusted many conservatives and Republican partisans. The GOP needed more voter turnout than it got. When a substantial fraction of “your voters” stay home, you tend to lose seats in Congress. Funny about that.
How could it have been otherwise? Voter turnout is determined by voter engagement, and the Republican-led Congress gave us little to engage with. Blame is being heaped on a few prominent figures – Trump and Thune lead the list – but deeper understanding requires a deeper look.
The Republican pattern is a “do nothing” pattern. The GOP has squandered its majorities since the era of Coolidge. This time around was different only in this: President Trump was expected to get them into motion. But the 119th Congress was indisposed to being mobilized for the Trump agenda.
Sad as it is to say, that was predictable. After all, the successes of the first Trump Administration were largely produced by executive orders. The Republican caucuses of those four years were as intractable as those of the 119th Congress. The reasons are largely the same in both cases.
A substantial number of Congressional Republicans dislike Trump and his agenda. Some didn’t want to support him. Others didn’t want to be seen supporting him. Trump’s titular leadership of the Republican Party meant little to them, for they had made careers out of their offices. Presidents can’t do that.
Add that to Republicans’ notorious aversion to media criticism and their pusillanimity before the slanders of the Left. Add also the “don’t rock the boat” mentality that’s characterized Republican political performance since FDR. Add finally GOP nervousness about being blamed for anything that might go wrong following substantial policy changes. Given all that, would it have been reasonable to expect Republican gains in Congress?
So here we are. What’s next?
I expect we’ll have to endure another attempt to remove Trump from the White House. Worse, several anti-Trump Republicans will sign onto it. He probably will be impeached yet again, though he’s unlikely to be removed. His hands will be tied concerning Iran and the Middle East. He may be impeded in other areas of foreign policy as well.
The bloodbath will also fuel the rise of contenders for the presidency who stand apart from Trump’s “Make America Great Again” agenda. They’ll point to the losses of November 3, 2026 as evidence that “it wasn’t want the nation wanted.” While attention has focused on J.D. Vance and Marco Rubio, expect the camera lenses to be pulled toward other figures that gain popular traction. The MAGA movement, such as it is, is likely to fragment as those new figures emerge.
This is not an argument against the Trump agenda. It’s merely a forecast of the dynamics the bloodbath will evoke. If there’s a lesson for conservative-inclined voters, it would be this:
If we want changes to federal policy, we must change federal policymakers. The opportunity to do that comes during the primaries, not on Election Day.
Perhaps we’ll find stouter hearts and sincerer tongues to represent us two years hence. If it’s to be so, it’s time to get working on it now.
Oh yes, there’s this as well: Buy ammo. Just in case, you understand.