Thursday, January 30, 2020

Graphing The Epidemic

I took this data from a BBC report.


Keep in mind, that this trend is only for 10 days. I would expect it to rise for another 30-60 days or so, then begin to turn down - IF this is a more-or-less normal seasonal illness. If the slope of the cases keeps increasing, this could be bad.

REAL bad.


4 comments:

NITZAKHON said...

Just did inventory. I have over 300 pounds of rice and beans (dry). And that doesn't include the other stockpiles.

Now on to water and gasoline.

John said...

Here is a good site to track the progress of the virus:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Two comments, the death rate seems to be fairly linear so far, so as the number of confirmed cases is increasing exponentially the number of deaths has not. This can mean that the number of deaths are about to increase or that those were the most serious cases and were detected first. Since there have reports that there have been incidences of the disease that are asymptomatic, the actual number of infections may be much higher and undetected. While that may not seem like a good thing, it would indicate that the fatality rate is lower than 2%. Regular flu has a mortality rate of about 0.1% but due to the large number of cases of flu actually kills about 40000 people a year, so a sense of proportion is in order.

MarcusZ1967 said...

This isa good dashboard for coronavirus.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Mike Smith said...

This would be much worse if we were already dead from Swine Flu, Bird Flu, Ebola and H1N1. Where have I heard this fearmongering before...