Wednesday, May 20, 2020

Bad Science Derived From Faulty Research

The Lockdown Idea - that, if government forces its citizens/subjects to cower inside their homes, fearful of leaving without extensive physical barriers and conformity-fearmongers chastising them about 'getting too close' - was apparently based on the social norms of a very small sample, of an unusual population - teenage high school students. Their interaction style was MODELED, using a computer simulation.
The primary author of this paper was Robert J. Glass, a complex-systems analyst with Sandia National Laboratories. He had no medical training, much less an expertise in immunology or epidemiology. 
That explains why Dr. D.A. Henderson, “who had been the leader of the international effort to eradicate smallpox,” completely rejected the whole scheme. 
 The structure of these assumed networks were a LOT more social than the norm. Trust me. Both as a stay-at-home mother, and, later, as an office worker, my interactions were so limited that opportunities to socialize outside of those groups were grabbed. Only as a teacher was I forced to have extended contact with large numbers of potentially infected individuals. And, in that job, I did often get sick. However, it led to my having a stronger immune system. You could probably expose the average teacher to Ebola, and they would shrug it off (not really, but...).

For example, the office worker. Most people in offices do NOT attend meetings all that much (and, most of them they do attend, are done unwillingly). It's not uncommon for such workers to spend most of their day relatively isolated, either in separate room, cubicle, or well-spaced desk area.

That's why 'water-cooler conversations', trips to the bathroom (and to just get up from a chair and walk around), and lunch-time with co-workers are so welcome. Normally, the jobs are without a lot of people time.

But, that's NOT what the researchers assumed - they believed that EVERYONE in the house interacted as much as teen girls.
Our network represented a stylized small US town and took advantage of the diverse backgrounds of the authors (1 of whom is a teenager). The population of 10,000 conformed to the 2000 Census (9) and consisted of children (<11 years of age, 17.7%), teenagers (12–18 years of age, 11.3%), adults (19–64 years of age, 58.5%), and older adults (>65 years of age, 12.5%). All persons belonged to multiple groups, each associated with a subnetwork of links that reflected their lives within the community (Figure 1Table 1). Households were composed of families (adults with children or teenagers), adults, or older adults. The age-class makeup and size of households conformed to the 2000 Census (9). All persons within each household were linked to each other with mean link contact frequencies of 6/day. Every person also belonged to 1 multiage extended family (or neighborhood) group (mean membership 12.5, mean link contact frequency 1/day).
All children and teenagers attended preschool or school; children attended 1 class/day, while teenagers attended 6 (classes of 20 to 35 children or teenagers). All adults went to work daily, where they interacted with other adults (work group size 10–50), and all older adults attended gatherings with other older adults (gathering size 5–20). For links within school classes, work, and gatherings of older adults, we assumed the simplest subnetwork that imposes local clustering: a ring lattice in which a person is linked to 2 (for children or teenager classes and gatherings of older adults) or 3 (adult work) neighboring persons on each side along the ring. Mean link contact frequencies for children in a class are 6/day. Teenager classes, adult work, and gatherings of older adults have mean link contact frequencies of 1/day.
To represent additional within-age class interactions, such as extracurricular activities, playgrounds, bowling leagues, or friends, persons are randomly linked to an average of 3 other persons of the same age class (mean link contact frequency 1/day). Finally, to emulate a somewhat patterned set of random contacts from commercial transactions and other ventures into public spaces, we impose a random overall network across all age classes with a mean of 25 links/person to yield 1 contact/person/day (mean link contact frequency 0.04/day).
 [My bolding] 

WAY more contact than the average American.

Now, if someone wanted to suggest that quarantining teen/tween girls (the most social group of all) to house arrest, with only electronic contact available (and even contact within their household) would reduce those interpersonal contacts to a minimum, and thus halt infection pathways, that would be a useful path to pursue. However, that would probably get you thrown into SJW Jail.

Which might be worth it, if only to see SJWs heads explode.

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