Friday, February 28, 2020

Quickies: Things To Come In 2020

     Apologies, Gentle Reader. The title is slightly misleading, as I have only one “thing to come” in mind at this time. But perhaps it will suffice for the moment.

     At this time, Bernie Sanders holds the lead in pledged delegates for the Democrats’ presidential nomination. Super Tuesday is not far off, and the polls suggest that he will widen that lead in that day’s primaries. It seems the multifarious efforts to bring Sanders down have not yet had a dramatic effect on his level of support.

     However, I am confident that Sanders will not be the Democrats’ nominee. I am equally confident that no matter whom the Democrat National Convention should nominate, that party is in for a long spell in the Slough of Despond. Here’s why.

     First, a tremendous amount of attention has been focused on the Democrats’ inner circle and their media allies as they work to weaken the Sanders candidacy. Despite this, Sanders remains ahead of the other presidential aspirants. Therefore, should the DNC deny Sanders the nomination, whatever the pretext, the politically engaged of our Republic will naturally be quite willing to believe that low dealings were involved. The combination of that belief with the unquenched belief that Sanders was denied the 2016 nomination by low means will cause a mass disaffection and disaffiliation from the party. No one to the left of the Clintons will abide such venalities any longer. They won’t become Republicans, mind you, but they’ll no longer regard themselves as partisan Democrats.

     Second, let’s imagine for a moment that Sanders builds such a delegate total that he does win the nod on the first ballot – in my estimation, the only way he can win it. Sanders is the most repulsive figure ever to rise to the top of Democrat politics: an outright socialist, a fan of left-wing dictators wherever they reign, and a career politician of the worst kind: one who has never earned a living outside of politics. Given his immense negatives and the Democrat inner circle’s dislike of him, he will not outperform George McGovern or Walter Mondale: two relatively decent persons, regardless of their political postures. I would be surprised if his percentage of the total popular vote exceeds that of Barry Goldwater in 1964.

     Third, many who were once justly called members of the Republican Establishment appear to have had a road-to-Damascus moment. While it’s difficult to be certain of their sincerity, many Senators who were once ardent opponents of Trump and his agenda are now supporters. Ted Cruz is the most evident case, but others are steadily growing more vocal in support of their outsider President.

     It’s not quite a “perfect storm,” but to my eyes it puts the odds heavily in favor of a GOP landslide, including in down-ticket races at both the federal and state levels. If so, the Democrats will face a period of retrenchment comparable to what it endured after the party was captured by the backers of William Jennings Bryan. That reconstitution took thirty-six painful years.

     I don’t expect to shed many tears over it.


Kye said...

Just remember. The only way we win is to get out and vote (assuming the left does not successfully defraud the election).


"... a GOP landslide..."

From your keyboard to Hashem's priority inbox, Francis!

THIF everyone.

daniel_day said...

What Kye said, and what Hugh Hewitt said -- the Republicans have to defeat the Democrat Party's margin of cheating. Not to be a Negative Nelly here.
It will be up to the RP base, including me, to restrain the party leadership from resting on the laurels so painfully earned by Trump and the base.

cc said...

I hope you are right, Francis.
I actually fear that the FSA (Free Army) has taken over too much of our society, for us to rest. We have to remain vigilant against this, lest we find ourselves "feelin' the Bern", after this Election Cycle.
Let's not make the mistakes that the other side made thinking that Trump "Could NEVER Win".