Sunday, December 20, 2020

Secession: The Prospects

     Esteemed Co-Conspirator Linda Fox thinks it’s a real possibility. So does Robert Lopez at American Greatness. And in all candor, I once thought it might come to pass. In brief, it seemed to me to be the solution to America’s political, economic, cultural, and sectarian tensions that was most likely to work long-term.

     But I don’t think so any longer. A commenter to the Lopez essay delineates some of the reasons:

     The only flaw I can see to the "separate ways" argument is a fatal one.

     No matter what you do, no matter what you try, do you really think these people will leave you alone?

     A major part of the draw of American leftism is the false sense of moral and intellectual superiority it confers to its devotees. But what good is that if you don't have a captive audience of people into whose faces you can rub your superiority? If you can't reach them, then how can you lord over them? Tell them how to live? What to eat? When they can leave their homes? Whether they're permitted to worship? How can you censor them, take away their right to self defense, and punish them?

     How can you keep humiliating them and mocking them with sham elections that serve to reinforce their helplessness before your power?

     We lost the culture wars because every time we gave in to what the leftists demanded and asked, "Now will you leave us alone?" they attacked another institution.

     They will never leave you alone.

     So you might as well fight them where you are. This is our country. Our Constitution, our Republic. Not theirs. Why cede it to them? Fight.

     He’s right about the political / psychological dynamic. The Left’s quasi-religious belief in its right to rule, owing to its presumption of moral and intellectual superiority to the rest of us, would demand that it force us to bow before it once again. Apart from that, power-seekers always seek more power, which would militate against secession a priori and would fuel a lust for infiltration and reconquest a posteriori. That lust would be encouraged and aided by any “blue remnant” populations that choose to remain in the “red” nation.

     At least as compelling is the dynamic that arises from the multiply interconnected continental economy. A secession that would create two political entities side by side, would also guarantee that one would be more prosperous than the other. The emotional response of the less successful polity would be a degree of envy and resentment that would guarantee conflict. As the Left has been fostering envy and resentment for many decades, a clash would inevitably follow. Irresistible pressure against the more successful nation-state’s borders would be the least of the consequences.

     Finally, there’s the military aspect of things. “Red America” is where most of the nation’s military assets reside, including the majority of its strategic weapons. “Blue America would never let those go without a fight...possibly a fight that would involve the use of those strategic weapons. I don’t think I need to sketch out how terrible that would be.

     Mike Hendrix puts it well:

     FederalGovCo will never, ever, EVER peaceably agree to cede its power over half the country by partitioning it off and just letting all that territory, all that infrastructure, all those military installations, and all those taxpayer dollars stroll away unmolested. In fact, now that we’ve taken the final steps towards Commie dictatorship with the recent fraudulent “election,” I’d say the bloated, illegitimate central government’s iron grip is far likelier to tighten than to relax.

     So I don’t see secession as a plausible course for the future.

     There have been secessions and partitions that have endured. However, in the usual case the partition of an existing nation into two or more parts has been imposed upon it by outside forces that could not be gainsaid. The United States has taken part in the engineering of such partitions. What power could impose its will on the U.S.? A state whose internal affairs are as disordered as is the norm today would never even conceive of the notion. As for a coalition of similarly minded nations, such alliances don’t come together for such a purpose. (The nations that united to fight in the World Wars of last century did so to protect and advance their several, respective economic and territorial interests, nothing more. America wouldn’t have gone to war in Europe were it not for the prospect of reduced access to Europe’s markets.)

     So even were there a sincere and potent secessionist movement abroad in the U.S., it would be unlikely to achieve its objective. Should it manage to do so, it would be even less likely to stand apart for long. While there have been mutterings about it in a few state legislatures, Texas most prominent among them, it looks highly improbable in the foreseeable future.

     We’re going to need to learn to get along.


WC McGirt said...

Francis, we on the right don't have difficulty getting along with people who just leave us the f**k alone. We will happily reciprocate. Our problems begin when the left exerts its supposed "moral superiority" against us, and they are genetically unable to resist that temptation. They must be slapped down forcefully just to get their attention.

I am afraid the only thing that will stop them is that they be allowed to reap what they have sewn, good and hard.

Thank you for your writings. Don't give up hope! Merry Christmas!!

Linda Fox said...

I'm thinking about a Divide-and-Conquer strategy:
- Exploit the Standard Money-Grubbing Politicians vs. the Young Left. Our goals are information, distrust of each other, and digging into their sources of funding (with the aim to dry them up).
- Play off the Chinese against the Russians (and other, smaller players). Our goal is always informational, but also identifying those Native Americans (born in this country) in our government/education industries that have committed treason or other punishable offenses, and either turning them, or kicking them out, confession on video in return for no public disgrace. At that point, we've GOT them; they can be put into organizations, and relay the dirt on them.
- Start buying financial institutions, insurance companies, other core industries. Don't immediately take action that 'outs' them as non-Woke. Before hiring, thoroughly vet ALL employees. Only contract those people who are vetted by trusted firms. Outsource the HR work - that eliminates a big factor in Females with a Grievance. Run lean - only hire when you have to. Yearly check all employees for Leftist tendencies - let an outside firm do the checking. If a department or division is infiltrated, do a reorganization, and eliminate it, with Golden Handshakes for all. It's cheaper than raising a fuss. The point is to keep under the Leftist radar.
- Quietly help boost the alternative media, through multiple connections, hidden through corporations. Match their income that would have been comparable to Leftist media, if they had access to ads.
- Buy 25 of the most popular magazines for women. Put non-Leftists in charge, and, if necessary, subsidize them. Make those purchases ones that have grocery store sales. Most people still go to buy groceries in person (and, due to COVID and deliveries, most of them are probably desparate for money). Give generous opportunities to some of the alt-media writers, photographers, and artists to show what they can do.

In my mind, there is no question that MOST of the division was sponsored and promoted by Leftists - Russian, Chinese, or other - and Islamicists, either working separately or in concert. It will take a LOT to soothe the jangled mistrust both sides have for each other.

Of course, it helps that dumba$$ Leftists in government and media keep shooting themselves in the foot. Most people hate the lockdowns, economic disruptions, and public demonstrations and violence. They are persuadable. Work on them.

Linda Fox said...

"most of them are probably desperate for money" - that referred to the magazines, not the shoppers (although it fits some).

George True said...

Which land does anyone propose to cede to the Left as a reward for their never ending depredations against decent folks?

I am reminded of the year 1560 when the Knights of the Order of St John on the island of Malta were besieged by 60,000 Moslems warriors sent by the emperor Suilieman. The Knights, numbering less than 500 with perhaps 1000-1500 auxiliary personnel, were offered safe passage if the would just leave. Their response? "We offer you only the narrow strip of land at the base of our walls - provided that you continually fill it with the bodies of your Jannissaries.

The Knights of St John won. After six months of siege, having lost over a third of their force in numerous battles, the forces of Suilieman gave up and withdrew. Let us gain courage from their example. Cede NOTHING to the Left. Absolutely NOTHING.

Glenda T Goode said...

Frankly, the blue state areas cannot survive without red states. Their entire economies are built upon red state productivity. Red states produce food, energy, petroleum and coal as well as being the corridors for all forms of transportation that support those who live in blue state areas.

As such, the blue states will fight to stop any secession. I would remind while many military assets are in red states, the proverbial 'buttons' to activate these are in blue state areas for the most part. Add the fact that the officer cadre of the military is not as conservative as one might think. Obama worked very diligently to eliminate as many conservative generals and high ranking officers as possible during his reign of error. We do not have automatic allies in the military and always remember that.

Finally, there are many who live 'trapped behind enemy lines' as red state people living in blue states. Many states have this characteristic. Any blue state generally has metro areas that make it blue but these are minute in terms of land mass and are surrounded by rural conservative Americans.

daniel_day said...

A strength of the Left that has so far eluded the Right is the impulse to unity. Yes, the Left has divisions, as you will hear if you listen to left-leaning talk radio, but one of their most important tropes is "We're an oppressed minority!", and the first weapon of an oppressed minority (or one who believes themselves oppressed) is unity. Thus, I think Linda's suggestion of Divide and Conquer is a non-starter.
The Right is quite capable of acting in unity; we're just not quite there yet.
Alinsky Rule #1 (paraphrased): Power is not only what you think you have, it's what the enemy thinks you have. Many of the right-leaning overestimate the Left, because of the Left's capture of the media. Many of the Left underestimate the Right, because of our disunity and because we have not actually used the weapons we've collected (not me, unfortunately, since that canoe accident in the Columbia River), in spite of our continually reminding the Left of them.
Answering George True's question, they can't be convinced, and we're not willing to kill all of them. I'd cede California south of, say, 39° N latitude, east to the foot of the Sierras (we keep the high ground), plus the southern tip of Nevada south of, say, 36° 30' N, east to the Colorado River. That leaves them farmland to feed themselves and access for irrigation. People on the east coast can figure out how to divide that part up.
The above paragraph was pure fantasy, of course, but it was fun writing it.

SSG Mac said...

The defining pathology of Colectivists of all stripes is the desire to control others. This is beyond serious despute.
That being the case, what possible action is left to Normals who only wish to be left alone? Only this: War to the knife.
No Normal wishes this, but if they are to escape the chains and slavery (however light and comfortable) the Colectivists have in mind for them, they must reconcile themselves to the necessity. This requires one of the hardest revelations to accept: they don't think like we do. The notion that "everyone wants the same things as we do" will serenade you into the gulag. Quit turning a blind eye to actions that make no sense to you (rioting, defunding police, innumerable others...) and realize the motivations that prompt those actions are different than your own. They DON'T want the same things as you; they want to OWN you. These are people who will reach into your shower and adjust the temperature because THEY KNOW BETTER THAN YOU what it should be. Don't think so? How much water does your toilet use per flush? You are TOLD how much that will be LAW.

Paul Bonneau said...

"No matter what you do, no matter what you try, do you really think these people will leave you alone?"

They might - if they received enough persuasion of the ballistic variety.

Of course, getting and maintaining separation will require the ability to go to battle. That is a given.

Some of the comments are not very realistic. Leftists have themselves talked about secession. And they are certain, with a lot of evidence in support, that they can do just fine in keeping their economies going (as long as they don't go full Stalinist). There will always be plenty of talented people who put up with supporting bums, as long as they can take home some pay themselves. Not all of the conservatives will move from southern California, to a place as dreary as Nevada.

Secession, panarchy and subsidiarity can be used by everyone, not just rightists. They are actually pretty popular in places like Portland.

evilfranklin said...

Once upon a time WA, OR, NV, NM and several other states were red. But then CA residents moved for one reason or another to those red states taking their blue state ways of thinking with them. Now those states are blue.

To regain the Republic requires a rethinking and a re-engineering of our founding document. The Preamble to the Bill of Rights declared that more restrictive clauses must be added to the Constitution. Neither the Constitution nor the Bill of Rights were restrictive enough.

Bear Claw Chris Lapp said...

Duh congress has to approve it